A large amount of uncertainty surrounds the future of the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle, uncertainty that even led to the high ranking MOD (Mission Operations Directorate) director, Paul Hill, to speak only of his confidence that there will at least be a “follow on program” – whatever that may be – after shuttle is retired, during the end of June All Hands address to MOD staff. (Article to be published in the coming days).

However, it is unlikely any fallout from the Augustine Commission – which Mr Hill was referencing – will result in the Ares I-X test flight being cancelled, as the four segment test vehicle attempts to keep to its mid-September launch date.

See all of NASASpaceflight.com’s Constellation related articles:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/news/constellation/

Ares I-X Processing Latest:

Although public schedules continue to class Ares I-X as launching at the end of August, internal manifests show Ares I-X as launching NET (No Earlier Than) September 18, with threats of day-to-day slips based on processing milestones.

“Accomplishments include the transfer of the Aft Skirt to Rotational Processing Surge Facility (RPSF) and the Forward Assembly to the VAB (Vehicle Assembly Building), the completion of the Forward Assembly Review, and the mating of the Aft Skirt to Aft Motor Segment,” noted an 8th Floor (MOD) overview of status (L2).

However, the opening stacking operations on the handed-over Mobile Launch Platform (MLP) – one of the key processing milestones – have been delayed by over a week, due to what appeared to be issues repairing a broken crane that is being tasked with transferring the assembled Aft Booster for its stacking in the VAB. While that is related, tests on the stack’s “integrity” are being called as per mate review for I-X.

“Ares I-X (VAB HB-3/4) (RPSF) (Pad-B): Aft Booster transfer to pallet on hold for crane repair. Transfer to VAB and stacking moved to next Wednesday, July 8th,” noted the latest daily processing flow information (L2).

Based on the realigned flow timeline, Monday will involve work in High Bay 3, relating to MLP Flame trench closeouts. Over in High Bay 4, the forward assembly will be prepared for 5SS Lift/Mate operations, ahead of Aft Booster stacking on Wednesday.

So far, no alteration to the launch date has been noted on the internal milestones, though it may be expected – due to the tight flow ahead of rollout to Pad 39B, scheduled for just three days ahead of launch.

“AB Camera & Bracket Installations/DFI (Development Flight Instrumentation) Cable Bracket Installation complete-to-date. Remaining work will be completed in the VAB,” added other processing notes.

“VAB HB-4 (High Bay 4): Interstage/Forward Assembly match drilling complete. Stack-1 Modal testing setups are in work. Re-pining pressure transducers in work. US-7 Harness and connector mates continue.

“VAB HB-3: HDP alignment optics in work. Stacking preps continue. No Weekend/Holiday work planned.”

Ares I-X Major Risks:

As noted on the June 22, 09 “Top Risks” review notes, acquired by L2, Ares I-X has four major issues – one of which relates to the continually slipping launch date, and three related to technical issues. Levels of ‘risk’ range from the smallest on the 25 box risk matrix, noted as 1×1 (GREEN), to the highest, seen as 5×5 (RED) – which list the ‘Likelihood’ the issue would occur x severity of ‘Consequence’ such an issue would have on the vehicle.

Interestingly, Thrust Oscillation (TO), even on the Ares I-X four segment – as opposed to the well know issues with the Ares I five segment – first stage dominates Ares I-X’s Top Risks findings.

This is despite warnings from the Ares I-X Chief Engineer over a year ago – as reported by this site – that TO and vibro-acoustic effects on the vehicle’s Flight Termination System (FTS) required mitigation.

“Requirement: FTS Range frequency – using current Air Force waiver. FTS Components environments exceeded at T+110 seconds – end of burn (Thrust Oscillation condition),” wrote the Chief Engineer on his expansive presentation (available on L2) to the Ares I-X System Critical Design Review (CDR) Phase II meeting in June, 2008.

Yet on the June 22, 2009 “Top Risk” review, “Thrust Oscillation and its affects on the Flight Termination System (Range Safety),” is classed as a 4×5 risk, showing it’s actually increased as a concern.

That increase is related to the time of ascent where TO’s effects on the vehicle’s FTS exceeds rated vibrational input levels, now deemed as starting around T+70 seconds – not T+110 seconds – into flight.

This in turn has placed pressure on obtaining the required Air Force waiver for the range, without which, Ares I-X would not be allowed to launch.

Another waiver will be required on the second “Top Risk” – related to Thrust Oscillation effects on the first stage TVC (Thrust Vector Control) electronics, used to gimble the solid rocket motor’s nozzle during steering commands. This risk, which is listed as 3×5, makes its debut on the Top Risk list.

However, a waiver on this issue is understood to be less of a problem to acquire, due to the knowledge of the “stock shuttle legacy SRB TVC system”, which Ares I-X will be using.

The biggest risk, a 5×5 risk, relates to the “vibro-acoustic environment input to Upper Stage Simulator (USS) exceeding structural margins.”

Very little is noted on this problem, although a recommendation that the USS should receive additional bracing to carry the higher than anticipated loads is noted as an avenue of mitigation. It is not known if that work has already been added to Ares I-X’s processing flow, although no reference has been made on the daily processing notes.

Ares I-Y Status Update:

The second test flight for Ares – prior to the ‘full up’ Ares I unmanned test flight in 2014 – remains in flux, as managers discuss either the deletion of Ares I-Y, or changes to the vehicle’s configuration and test requirements.

Ares I-Y’s future is embedded into the drive to solve “schedule disconnect” issues that were raised at the start of this year’s PMR (Program Milestone Review or Program Manager’s Recommend) cycle, which showed threats to the entire Constellation schedule, and the possibility that the gap between shuttle retirement and Orion’s FOC (Full Operational Capability) debut on Orion 4 (ISS crew rotation) could be as large as seven years.

With such a gap deemed as unacceptable by Constellation management, Ares I manager Jeff Hanley built his own point-by-point plan to return the schedule back into the March, 2015 IOC (Initial Operating Capability – or Orion 2) timeframe.

Mr Hanley’s plans included the deletion of the Ares I-Y test flight – which has now slipped to 2014 – to be possibly replaced by an Ares I-X hybrid known as Ares I-X Prime, capable of carrying out high abort testing earlier in the Constellation schedule.

These plans remain under discussion, with the latest information – noted on the latest MOD 8th Floor News – pointing towards evaluations into flying a reconfigured Ares I-Y vehicle, earlier in the schedule. However, as per evaluation notes, advancing this stage of testing may not be possible.

“Ares I-Y flight definition: The Ares Project presented their assessment to determine the earliest possible date to fly I-Y as a powered second stage configuration,” noted the 8th Floor memo (L2).

“The earliest available Upper Stage is June 2014 (3 month slip to current I-Y date), this is driven by facilities. The earliest available J-2X engine is February 2013 for upper stage integration, this does not support Upper Stage need dates or all testing.

“Currently Ares I-Y is scheduled for March 2014 with no powered second stage. Many believe that the program needs to demonstrate two unmanned flights prior to the first manned flight, today’s manifest has only one.

“The board decided not to change the manifest at this time, but a detailed CR (Change Request) with all the proposed changes, including Orion and Ground Operations impacts and test needs, will come to the board in October.”

Ares I itself has three top risks, with First Stage nose first re-entry, now classed as a 4×4 risk and increasing. Range Safety System certification is classed as a 4×5 risk and increasing, while TVC certification is now a noted as a 3×5 risk.

Interestingly, Thrust Oscillation is not listed for Ares I.

Orion Status Update:

Orion is likely to survive any fallout from potential changes to the forward plan for NASA’s return to the moon. However, the manned vehicle is suffering from its own technical challenges, in part due to the continued stripping of its capabilities based on mass growth versus Ares I performance.

Ares I can launch the ISS version of Orion, thanks to a series of mass stripping exercises – notably the ZBV (Zero Based Vehicle) effort. However, the Lunar Orion’s mass properties – again based on Ares I’s performance capability – is a major challenge, seeing its “score card” mass properties between Orion 606-E (December 2008) and Orion 606-G (May 2009) grow into a RED risk for the program.

Solutions will need to be sought throughout all of the major components on Orion; with the LAS (Launch Abort System), CM (Crew Module), SM (Service Module) and Jettisoned Spacecraft Adapter (SAJ) all trending up in mass – which includes the breaching of the “managers reserves”, set aside for mass growth margins.

Orion is also suffering from problems with its electric power generation and storage margins, which is threatening a redesign of the vehicle’s Solar Arrays/Panels.

According to documentation, the required margins on the ability for the solar panels to generate enough power for storage in the vehicle’s batteries – for use during the Lunar Orion’s flight out of sunlight – is short by 22 percent.

The solutions to this problem would require either an increase in the size of Orion’s solar wings and/or additional battery storage capacity – with both options adding yet more mass to the vehicle. The ISS Orion’s electric power generation and storage margins are understood to be within requirements.

Engineering challenges with new flight hardware are commonplace, yet solutions to those problems should also be expected, thanks to the talented engineering workforce Constellation has at its disposal. In Orion’s case, NASA and Lockheed Martin engineers have been meeting at Lockheed’s Denver base to aid that mitigation process.

“Many MOD personnel have been in Denver the last two weeks supporting the Orion Project Subsystem Design Review (SSDR). The purpose of the design review is to resolve issues and close details on the subsystems prior to the Orion Project PDR, which is scheduled for August this year, followed by a software review in November,” noted the 8th Floor.

“MOD folks are heavily engaged at the subsystem level and are providing valuable input to the project. The coordination and integration of the MOD review has been lead by our CEV Operations Manager.”

As previously reported, Orion’s crew capability has been reduced from carrying six crewmembers to four – with the possibility of adding six person crews after Orion’s design has matured. This drive is part of Mr Hanley’s suggestions for finding get-wells in the vehicle’s development cycle by simplifying the “Apollo on Steroids” spacecraft with the aim to increase margin in the overall schedule.

However, Constellation’s management are taking the crew reduction a stage further, by changing Orion’s capability from 0-6 crew (unmanned capability) to 2-4 crew – with a contingency of no less than one crewmember being able to fly the vehicle. Such a change eliminates Orion’s ability to fly unmanned, which could have been utilized in a number of scenarios.

“Orion Crew Size Requirement: There were a couple of key topics of interest to MOD this week at the CxCB (Constellation Control Board),” noted a memo outlining discussions (L2). “First, a change to the requirements for Orion to be capable to fly 0-6 crew to 2-4 crew.

“Four is the requirement for Lunar and flights to ISS do not require 6, thus reducing the maximum crew by 2 will simplify design and build margin in the schedule.”

Orion will be designed with the intent that two crew members will fly the vehicle, but can be operational if only one crew member is available during a contingency event.

“There was a concern raised that unless 1 crew (one person) is specified, the design will not be driven to make it actually operational by 1 crew,” added the CxCB memo.

“The Orion Project interpreted the 1 crew requirement to be only contingency, with the focus being on 1 crew being able to control the vehicle and to ingress and egress (hatch operation).

“The board decision was that the intent is to get one crew back safely, not provide a nominal one crew capability. The design will be for 2-4, with 1 crew contingency. An action given to rewrite the single crew requirement to clearly reflect the intent vs. leaving the contingency words it in the rationale.”

It is not clarified in the CxCB notes as to whether the loss of unmanned capability relates to both ISS and Lunar Orion’s full mission capability, such as Lunar landings – which currently involve Orion being left unmanned on orbit. If that specific capability is lost, only two crewmembers would be able to undock with Altair and land on the lunar surface, while two crewmembers stay with Orion.

Such a loss of capability is unlikely, due to the massive impact such a decision would have on moon missions. Sources also claim an autonomous capability is likely to remain for leaving Orion in a Lunar orbit, and that the change relates to eliminating Orion’s ability to return to Earth without the aid of the crew.

L2 members: Documentation – from which the above article has quoted snippets – is available in full in the related L2 sections, now over 4000 gbs in size.

Related posts:

1. Orion PDR delay could stretch into 2010 The requirement to carry out an additional Design Analysis Cycle...
2. Saving spaceship Orion – Zero Base Vehicle task complete NASA Constellation and Lockheed Martin engineers have completed the first...
3. Orion weight saving refinements continue – focus on ISS access The Lockheed Martin Orion spacecraft has received a new set...

Ares I-X Latest:

The launch of the four segment booster, along with a dummy Upper Stage and boilerplate Orion, has a price tag of several hundred million dollars, which has leant to a level of criticism, given the test flight fails to resemble the five segment Ares I vehicle for which it is tasked with gaining data.

However, with its fifth inactive segment, it will have a similar mass to Ares I, along with a mirrored flight profile to allow for some data to be gathered on the vehicle’s flight control system performance.

Also, how the vehicle performs during Max Q and other high loading aerodynamic stresses during ascent will be key in vindicating computational models being used on Ares I’s design cycles.

Processing of the vehicle is closing in on stacking inside the VAB, with the recent milestone of mating the dummy Crew Module (CM) with the non-functioning Launch Abort System (LAS) resulting in electrical “liveliness” testing – which is near completion inside High Bay 4.

“VAB Transfer Aisle: Aft/Center-XL-550, FSAM/Aft/Center: DFI Liveliness Test is in work. Aft-XL-405, FSAM/Aft: Card Installation and Cable Mates are in work,” noted the latest daily processing information on L2.

“VAB High Bay 4: CM/LAS Liveliness testing is approx 90 percent complete with good results. W.O. operation will perform click bond removal/installation for the Jiffy-Junctions and wire routing located at the 0 Degree Closeout Panel.”

With work spread around the Transfer Aisle and High Bays 3 and 4, the Mobile Launch Platform (MLP-1) – recently acquired by the Constellation Program (CxP) – is on a timeline to be ready to receive the opening elements of Ares I-X on June 19, which is later than previously scheduled.

First Stage stacking is scheduled to begin on June 30, to be followed by the stacking of the Upper Stage elements on July 24.

“Ares I-X Status – The team continues to make good progress toward launch. Forward Skirt Extension mating and Frustrum FSE (Flight Support Equipment) mate were very significant accomplishments,” noted a recent update via the MOD (Mission Operations Directorate) 8th Floor News memo on L2.

“The forward assembly of Ares I-X is currently projected to be complete on June 19 vs. a need date of June 1. This results in a threat of a day for day slip (based on the previous August 30th launch date), but the team is working to try to improve the schedule, including not slipping the mate review date of June 30.

“At mate review the schedule impacts will be known and a new launch date will be set.

“All Acceptance reviews are progressing well and the CoFR (Certification of Flight Readiness) endorsements are progressing well. MOD will CoFR its day of launch support through the Constellation Operations Test and Integration Office (Cx OTI).”

Integrated testing of the stacked vehicle will take place throughout August, prior to rollout to Pad 39B on September 14 – just four days ahead of the newly scheduled launch date. Any delay to stacking the vehicle on the MLP is likely to result in the launch date slipping yet further. It has been known for some months that the realistic launch date for Ares I-X would be around October.

Meanwhile, MOD have already set up their plans to support the Ares I-X launch, following meetings that started back in April. Their support will be via the consoles in the Mission Control Center – as per usual for all KSC launches – although the Ares I-X flight itself will be controlled from the Firing Room at the Kennedy Space Center.

“MOD and the Ares I-X project have finalized the MOD support for that test flight. The Ares I-X SE&I Review Forum (SERF) and the Ares Engineering Review Board (ERB) met April 24th and approved MOD’s plans to provide support to the Ares I-X Day-of-Launch team from the MCC in Houston.

“MOD’s plans to support this mission from the MCC in “flight following” mode. Flight Design personnel will also provide an independent trajectory and load indicator assessment from the White MPSR (Multi-Purpose Support Room) in B30S on launch day.

“The MOD assessment will be passed to the LaRC (Langley) team in Hangar AE at the CCAFS (Cape Canaveral Air Force Station) for inclusion in their overall go/no-go call to the NTD (NASA Test Director).

“An MOD representative will be posted to Hangar AE on launch day to facilitate this communication. The launch support teams for this test flight plan a minimum of five DOL simulations prior to the actual test flight to sort through operational details and verify the balloon assessment timeline.”

Ares I-Y Latest:

It’ll be at least two more years before the next test flight, via what is known as Ares I-Y – which will be a five segment booster, mirroring the actual Ares I First Stage configuration. However, as the Constellation Program attempt to balance their budget, along with issues related to schedule disconnects, this test flight is currently on the chopping board.

“Mission Ops Project Control Board Status: In response to the recently reported CxP Content Scrub to potentially delete test flight Ares 1-Y, the Mission Ops PCB (Program Control Board) Chair assigned an action to all divisions to provide the Division’s test flight strategy for risk mitigation should this flight be scrubbed,” added another recent 8th Floor News memo (L2).

This action came after Ares I manager Jeff Hanley’s point-by-point list of actions that he recommended to the Program as a whole, in order to try and protect the Ares I/Orion manned launch schedule within the 2015 IOC (Initial Operational Capability) target.

An initial decision point is due on June 10 at the Constellation Top Risk Review meeting.

Should managers decide to cull the Ares I-Y flight, it is likely to be replaced by what is currently known as Ares I-X Prime.

This vehicle would still allow for high altitude abort testing, but on a refined – and advanced – schedule, removing funding and timeline pressures from the Orion 1 test flight, and ultimately the Orion 2 manned debut of the new launch system.

L2 members: Documentation – from which most of the above article has quoted snippets – is available in full in the related L2 sections, now over 4000 gbs in size

Related posts:

1. Ares progress update – opening J-2X engine tests completed As the Constellation Program prepare to update the media on...