Another Russian Failure:

Marking what has been an extremely tough year for the Russian Space Agency, this latest failure adds to the loss – and expected re-entry next month – of the Fobus-Grunt spacecraft, which failed to depart Low Earth Orbit (LEO) for its primary mission to Phobos.

The Mars mission failure – adding to the apparent jinx the Russians are blighted by when it comes to missions to the Red Planet – was even more painful, given the eventful year, which included a Proton-M’s Briz-M upper stage failing to deploy Russia’s Ekspress-AM4 communications satellite in August, soon followed by the third stage of the Russian Soyuz-U rocket prematurely shutting down, resulting in Progress M-12M crashing to Earth.

The Soyuz-2-1 rocket is a descendent of the R-7 Semyorka, the world’s first intercontinental ballistic missile. The R-7 was designed by Sergei Korolev, and first flew in 1957. A modified version was used to launch the first satellite, Sputnik 1, on 4 October of that year.

The R-7 formed the basis for the Luna, Vostok, Voskhod, Molniya and Soyuz families of rockets, and to date all Soviet and Russian manned spaceflights have been launched using rockets derived from the R-7.

The Soyuz, which first flew in 1966, was a modification of the Voskhod rocket featuring an upgraded and lighter telemetry system, and more fuel efficient engines. It was initially used to launch only Soyuz spacecraft; however with the introduction of the Soyuz-U in 1973 it began to launch other satellites as well.

The Soyuz-U, which remains in service, is the most-flown orbital launch system ever developed, having made around 750 flights to date, plus around 90 more in the Soyuz-U2 configuration optimised to use synthetic propellant.

The Soyuz-2 was developed from the older Soyuz models, and features digital flight control systems and modernised engines. It first flew in 2004, and this is its twelfth launch.

Two variants are currently in service; the Soyuz-2-1a, and the Soyuz-2-1b which features an RD-0124 third stage engine which provides additional thrust. The RD-0124 was declared operational on 3 May 2011.

A third configuration, the Soyuz-2-1v, is currently under development and is expected to make its maiden flight next year. It features an NK-33 engine in place of the RD-108A used on the core stages of the other configurations, and does not include the strapon boosters used by other configurations.

The Soyuz-2 forms the basis for the Soyuz-ST rocket, which made its maiden flight from Kourou in French Guiana this year. The Soyuz-ST is optimised to fly from Kourou, and also incorporates a flight termination system and a modified telemetry system.

The launch of the Soyuz-ST carried two Galileo IOV-M1 satellites into orbit.

The core stage of the Soyuz-2, the Blok-A, is powered by a single RD-108A engine. This is augmented for the first two minutes of flight by four boosters, each of which is powered by an RD-107A engine. The Fregat Upper Stage, is powered by an S5.98M engine, which uses unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine as propellant and nitrogen tetroxide as an oxidiser.

The Fregat first flew in 2000, and has been used on Soyuz-U, Soyuz-FG, Soyuz-2 and Zenit rockets.

Soyuz 2.1b Failure/Internal Issues:

There are conflicting reports as to the cause of the failure, with the latest rumor in the Russian media claiming the fairing did not jettison. However, most reports point to a serious failure of the third stage – a claim made by one of the leading Russian reporters, Analoly Zak of RussianSpaceWeb.

“According to industry sources, the analysis of available telemetry on the fuel line pressure before the entrance to the engine’s injection system indicated a possible bulging of the combustion chamber No. 1, leading to its burn through and a catastrophic fuel leak.”

Click here for Russian Articles: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/news/russian/

The resulting incident led to the remains of the vehicle and spacecraft – which was designed to provide communication between ships, planes and coastal stations on the ground – crashing to Earth, with some reports claiming debris landed in a populated area, with one large piece crashing through the roof of a house in Siberia.  No injuries have yet been reported.

Despite the Soyuz TMA-03M post-docking media briefing opening with a request to focus questions on the successful arrival of Oleg Kononenko, André Kuipers and Don Pettit, journalists soon asked questions about the earlier failure.

Mr Popovkin initially seemed open to discuss the failure, noting the engine in question was made in 2009, and while commissions had been installed – likely relating to the fallout from other failure investigations – “not everything can be checked off blueprints”.

Mr Popovkin was surprisingly frank in his remarks about an Agency he took over from Mr Anatoly Perminov earlier this year, using words such as “crisis”, as much as such comments were passed on via an interpreter.

“This proves there’s areas of the program which are in a sort of a crisis. Even now, I can probably say the problem is with the engine, but to be more certain we will look at the telemetry. By (Saturday) will be have results which we will be able to report,”

Then came the somewhat shocking revelation that the Russian space program is – as much as it had been feared – seriously struggling with its need to modernize and optimize, likely driven by both funding shortages and demographics.

“Yes, there are problems. We need to optimize and modernize – we need to modernize the tracking system (for example),” the Roscosmos chief added. “But we’re only at a level of 33 percent (in this process). We need to modernize all the facilities because we can’t keep an eye on everything.

“It’s also the ageing of human resources, given the trouble we had in the 1990s when quite a lot of people left and nobody came to replace them – they should have come in the 90s.”

Citing the demographic imbalance, Mr Popovkin noted that they would have to trust their young workers more, while “replacing lots of leaders and heads”.

Potential ISS Impact:

These problems are extremely untimely for NASA, who have put all their eggs into one Russian basket for their ability to launch astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS).

A return to domestic crewed launch ability – via NASA’s Commercial Crew drive – could be as far away as 2017, while there is no going back on the almost stubborn insistence on ensuring the retired Shuttle fleet had their wings clipped to avoid any restart capability, leaving the United States with no choice but to continue to pay Russia hundreds of millions of dollars to buy seats on Soyuz launch vehicles.

“From today, the era of the Soyuz has started in manned spaceflight, the era of reliability,” Roscosmos proudly proclaimed, just prior to the failure of the Progress vehicle, which almost resulted in the decrewing of the $100 billion outpost.

And now this latest failure may also impact on the Station, on the day the ISS finally returned to a six member crew. This impact will depend on the actual root cause of the failure, and its commonality with the Soyuz used for TMA and Progress launches.

Not all Soyuz vehicles are alike, with different configurations and engines used on the variants. For example, the Progress resupply ships are launched by the Soyuz-U, Soyuz TMA-M is launched by the Soyuz-FG, whereas the now-lost Meridian satellite was launched by Soyuz 2-1b.

With differences – such as combustion chamber injectors and avionics – between the vehicles, some specific failures may not result in the grounding of all variants of the Soyuz.

However, if the third stage engine is confirmed to be the issue, this could have a more severe impact, given it was the third stage engine – despite using a different engine – which failed during the Progress M-12M launch, potentially pointing to a larger issue with the launch vehicle, such as plumbing and lines.

With information pointing to the failure occurring at 134 seconds into the 270 second burn of the third stage, the issue could be related to a plumbing failure, causing a fuel leak, which would have either resulted in the engine shutting down, or even exploding.

The Progress failure was later revealed as being attributed to a malfunction in the gas generator of the third stage’s RD-0110 engine, and while the RD-0124 involved with Friday’s Soyuz is a different design from the RD-0110, there are plenty of failure modes that could also impact the Soyuz-FG – such a procedure failure in launch vehicle manufacture, engine manufacture, or launch processing.

Such a common issue across the variants of the Soyuz launch vehicles would be speculation, but such failure modes could exist via fuel contamination or incorrect fuelling.

If the problem is related to flight test/design issues with the new RD-0124 engine, unrelated to the RD-0110, the crew launch Soyuz-FG and Progress carrier Soyuz-U may avoid any potential grounding, which – if long term – would have serious impacts on the ISS’ ability to remain at a six person crew.

Additional information will be added when Roscosmos reveal their telemetry findings on Saturday. Thanks to Jonathan McDowell for his additional insight used in this article.

(Images via Roscosmos, NASA and Starsem).

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Soyuz TMA-03M:

Launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome on Wednesday, the successful Soyuz TMA-03M docking finally puts an end to the fallout from August’s Progress M-12M launch failure, by boosting the ISS back up to six long-term crewmembers before yearend. The station had been operating at a reduced crew level since the departure of Soyuz TMA-21/26S on 16th September, caused by launch delays resulting from the August Progress failure, which led to concerns of a potential station de-crewing (later averted).

A few hours after docking, hatches between Soyuz TMA-03M and the ISS will be opened, whereupon Soyuz TMA-03M crewmembers Oleg Kononenko, André Kuipers and Don Pettit will float aboard the station to greet the already-aboard Dan Burbank, Anton Shkaplerov and Anatoly Ivanishin. Together, the two crews will form the full complement of Expedition 30 until 16th March 2012.

Expedition 30 objectives:

Immediately after arriving aboard the station, and following the mandatory press conference, ISS tour and safety briefing, the Soyuz TMA-03M crew will enjoy some downtime over the Holiday period as they adjust and settle in to their new home, which involves adaptation to the microgravity environment, setting up personal crew quarters, and familiarization with station equipment and procedures.

Looking toward the New Year however, the now fully staffed station crew will get ready for an extremely busy period of research and cargo deliveries aboard the station – including the arrival of the first ever commercial cargo ship at the ISS.

Research aboard the station will continue throughout all periods of activity, with station utilization increased now that the US segment of the station is officially complete following the retirement of the Space Shuttle this summer. The target is for 35 crew hours per week to be devoted to scientific activities, although this is an average figure since busy periods may see reduced hours while quiet periods may see increased hours.

In the last few months, crews have even managed to achieve 45 crew hours per week of science, a figure which could become more common with Dr. Don Pettit now aboard the ISS, who is infamous for his scientific activities aboard the station.

One of the major tasks for Expedition 30, besides research, is to transition the station to new software loads, in order to support new hardware, and the arrival of the new commercial resupply vehicles.

Click here for ISS News Articles: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/tag/iss/

The first software transition is known as X2_R10 (the current version of ISS software is X2_R9), and is required to support new Enhanced Processor & Integrated Communications (EPIC) cards, which are hardware replacements for older cards that reside in the Command & Control (C&C) and Guidance, Navigation & Control (GNC) Multiplexer/Demultiplexers (MDMs). X2_R10 will upgrade the C&C and GNC MDM software to support the new EPIC cards, with software transition and EPIC card testing running in parallel.

The EPIC card installation and X2_R10 transition was previously planned for earlier this year, but was affected by the Progress M-12M failure since, in the new utilisation era aboard the station, where research takes priority over other activities, there were not enough crew hours available to devote to troubleshooting issues, due to the reduced onboard crew.

Source information shows that the gradual hardware transition to EPIC cards (new cards will temporarily run in parallel with old cards in order to reduce risk, with all old cards gradually being replaced), plus the subsequent software transition from X2_R9 to X2_R10, will take place from 27th December through to 5th January.

Pending a successful EPIC card installation and software transition to X2_R10, the next software transition will be from X2_R10 to X2_R11, which is required to support the upcoming SpaceX C2/C3 demo flight by, amongst other things, upgrading the station’s robotic Mobile Servicing System (MSS), which will be used in the capture and berthing of Dragon to the station, to software version 7.1. Source information shows that this transition will occur in two stages from 15th January through to 1st February.

Following a successful X2_R11 transition, the next software upgrade planned aboard the station is X2_PEP_R10, an upgrade which will increase the total allowable number of active payloads on the station at any given time, and also update software for the new Permanent Multipurpose Module (PMM).

This transition will occur No Earlier Than (NET) February. While X2_PEP_R10 does require X2_R11, it is not a requirement for the visit of the Dragon spacecraft.

Visiting Vehicles:

Another major objective of the Expedition 30 mission will be the successful coming and going of numerous Visiting Vehicles (VVs), including the first ever visit of a commercial VV to the ISS, which will usher in a new era for the station.

The first VV activity will occur on 25th January, when the Progress M-13M/45P spacecraft will undock from the Docking Compartment-1 (DC-1) “Pirs” Nadir docking port. A day later on 26th January, Progress M-14M/46P will launch from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, for a docking to DC-1 Nadir on 28th January.

Following undocking, the Progress M-13M spacecraft will transfer to a 500km orbit (ISS orbits at a mean altitude of around 400km) in order to release the Chibis-M microsatellite, which will be attached to the Progress in place of the removable docking probe.

Source information shows that Progress M-13M will undock with the hatch open in order to facilitate the Chibis-M deployment, and as such all trash disposed of on Progress M-13M will need to be certified for vacuum. Following satellite deployment, Progress M-13M will perform a de-orbit burn from 500km, with no ISS conjunction issues expected (evaluations are still ongoing however).

The next milestone will be by far the biggest for Expedition 30 – the 7th February launch of SpaceX’s Dragon capsule on its combined COTS-2/3 mission. Following a two-day catch up to the station, an ISS “fly-under” will occur on 9th February, in order to accomplish all COTS-2 objectives, which include communication between Dragon and the station via the COTS UHF Communication Unit (CUCU), and initiation of a rendezvous abort. (L2 SpaceX Content link)

If all COTS-2 objectives are successfully demonstrated, Dragon will then be allowed to proceed onto COTS-3 objectives the following day on 10th February, which is a full rendezvous with capture and berthing to the ISS. During the rendezvous, which will see Dragon approach the ISS from underneath and behind, the ISS crew will begin monitoring the Dragon when it is 1000m from the ISS, and will begin taking action (i.e. actively participating in the rendezvous) once Dragon reaches 200m from the station.

There will be two hold points during the rendezvous, at both the 30m and the 10m meter mark, in order to allow all parameters to be verified as nominal and a Go/No Go decision to be given for proceeding to the capture of the Dragon by the Space Station Remote Manipulator System (SSRMS), controlled from the Cupola by US astronauts Dan Burbank and Don Pettit.

Friday’s successful docking of Soyuz TMA-03M has enabled the berthing of Dragon by delivering Pettit to the station, who is the only trained US crewmember able to assist Burbank with the capture (ISS flight rules dictate that two trained crewmembers must be present on the ISS for capture and berthing of every required VV). Both Burbank and Pettit will be conducting Dragon capture proficiency training with the Robotics Onboard Trainer (ROBoT) over the coming months.

Eight separate demonstration objectives exist for Dragon to successfully prove during the C2/C3 mission, with each one needing to be successfully completed before approval is given to proceed to the next. However should an off-nominal situation occur, Dragon can perform two types of abort thruster burns – one a large change of velocity (Delta-V) in the X axis (in the axis of the ISS’ Velocity Vector), or a small Delta-V in any axis.

Should Dragon berth to the ISS successfully, hatches will be opened and the non-essential cargo inside Dragon (no essential cargo will be included since the mission is a test flight) will be transferred to the ISS, following which some of the ISS’ trash and items to be returned to Earth will be loaded into Dragon in place of the newly delivered supplies.

L2 info shows that 41 CTBE (Cargo Transfer Bag Equivalent) of cargo, including crew provisions and empty bags to facilitate trash disposal, will be delivered to the ISS on C2/C3 (Dragon has a capacity of 50 CTBE), while 16 CTBE will be returned to Earth.

Dragon will remain berthed to the ISS until 28th February, whereupon it will be released for re-entry and recovery off the coast of California.

The next major VV to visit the station will then be ESA’s Automated Transfer Vehicle-3 (ATV-3), which is currently scheduled to launch to the station atop an Ariane V on 9th March 2012.

Expedition 30 will actually end before ATV-3 docks to the ISS, since Soyuz TMA-22/28S will undock from the MRM-2 Zenith port on 16th March, marking the beginning of Expedition 31, before ATV-3 docks to the ISS at the Service Module (SM) Aft port three days later on 19th March.

This will mark the first post-Shuttle docking to SM Aft, again due to the failure of Progress M-12M in August.

Other Expedition 30 activities:

An additional task for Expedition 30 includes Russian EVA-30 by Oleg Kononenko and Anton Shkaplerov, currently scheduled for 14th February, although this is likely to move to another date in order to deconflict it with Dragon’s mission to station, thus protecting Dragon against any potential launch and subsequent ISS arrival delays.

Dragon would be unable to rendezvous with the ISS during an ongoing EVA since Dan Burbank and Don Pettit would be “locked out” in different areas of the station to protect against a Pirs airlock depressurisation failure, thus preventing Burbank and Pettit from being present in the Cupola together.

Source information also shows that ISS flight controllers are monitoring the status of two external Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs) on the ISS – an S-band Antenna Sub Assembly (SASA) and the Main Bus Switching Unit-1 (MBSU-1), both of which have been showing anomalous data readings in recent months.

While redundant hardware does exist to protect against a failure, potential unplanned EVAs by US crewmembers continue to be looked at in order to Remove & Replace (R&R) either of the ORUs. Potential use of the Special Purpose Dextrous Manipulator (SPDM) “Dextre” is also being analysed to assist in the potential R&Rs.

Any external US hardware failures on station in future (such as the August 2012 failure of the Loop B Pump Module) will be more difficult to fix, since, due to the retirement of the Space Shuttle, station crews must now perform all EVAs, which drastically reduces the time that can be spent on research. The final Space Shuttle flights did however deliver enough spare ORUs to the ISS to support future R&Rs – with spare SASAs and MBSUs are currently in good supply on the ISS, with plans for future deliveries.

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(Images: Via L2 content, SpaceX and NASA.) (To join L2, click here: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/l2/)

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Soyuz Launch:

Soyuz TMA-03M is the third “digital” TMA-M (700 series) Soyuz to launch into space, and marks the full transition of the Soyuz to the digital era, since every Soyuz hereafter will also be of the upgraded digital variant. The upgrades consist of updated Neptun panel displays and controls, as well as lighter system components which allow for more payload (~50kg) to be launched inside the Soyuz.

Following a two-day free flight, Soyuz TMA-03M will rendezvous with the ISS on Friday (23rd December), for a 2:22 PM GMT docking at the Mini Research Module-1 (MRM-1) “Rassvet”, vacated on 22nd November by the departing Soyuz TMA-02M/27S spacecraft.

Once hatches are opened a few hours later, the current three-member Expedition 30 crew – consisting of American astronaut and ISS Commander Dan Burbank, as well as Russian cosmonauts Anton Shkaplerov & Anatoly Ivanishin – will welcome the Soyuz TMA-03M crew aboard the ISS just in time for the festive holiday period.

It is tradition for crews arriving at the ISS during the holiday period to bring festive gifts for their counterparts – as was seen on 22nd December 2009, when the just-docked Soyuz TMA-17 crew entered the ISS carrying Christmas trees and wearing Santa hats. The already on-orbit Expedition 30 crewmembers have decorated the ISS for the arrival of the Soyuz TMA-03M crew.

Soyuz TMA-03M is planned to remain docked to the ISS until 16th May, whereupon it will undock and land on the steppe of Kazakhstan.

Soyuz TMA-03M crewmembers:

Soyuz TMA-03M is carrying a fairly un-typical crew, since none of the three crewmembers are military aviators, and two are from medical and research backgrounds – a shape of things to come now that the ISS has entered the utilisation era, following completion of the US segment of the station and subsequent retirement of the Space Shuttle.

All three crewmembers have visited the ISS before, and all have flown on Soyuz before, with the caveat that Don Pettit has landed but never launched on a Soyuz.

Soyuz TMA-03M is being commanded by veteran Russian cosmonaut Oleg Kononenko, who most recently flew in space during the Expedition 17 mission from April to October 2008. He flew to and returned from the ISS in the Soyuz TMA-12 spacecraft, along with fellow cosmonaut Sergey Volkov, who returned from space just one month ago aboard Soyuz TMA-02M.

Kononenko, born 21st June 1964 (currently 47 years of age), graduated as a mechanical engineer from the Zhukovsky Kharkov Aviation Institute in 1988, following which he went to work for the Russian Space Agency, Roscosmos, as an engineer, prior to being selected for cosmonaut training in 1996. He is married with one son and one daughter.

Upon arrival at the ISS, he will serve as Flight Engineer on Expedition 30, and command the ISS during Expedition 31, from 16th March to 16th May next year. Kononenko is also slated to perform at least one spacewalk during his second flight, having previously conducted two spacewalks during his six-month mission in 2008.

Flight Engineer-1 (FE-1) on Soyuz TMA-03M is European Space Agency (ESA) astronaut André Kuipers, who was born in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, on 5th October 1958 (current age 53). He has flown in space only once before during the eleven-day DELTA mission, launching aboard Soyuz TMA-4 on 19th April 2004 and returning to Earth aboard Soyuz TMA-5 on 30th April 2004. During his mission, he conducted 21 experiments aboard the ISS for the European Space Agency.

Such short missions were common in the past, since at the time the ISS was crewed by only two people in wake of the Space Shuttle Columbia tragedy, meaning that a third seat was free on each launching and landing Soyuz for an additional short-term crewmember.

Kuipers earned his medical Doctorate from the University of Amsterdam in 1987, whereupon he worked at various medical institutions, including serving as an officer in the Royal Netherlands Air Force Medical Corps, and investigating data from various life sciences missions aboard the Space Shuttle. He was selected as an ESA astronaut in 1998, and is married with three daughters and one son.

During his second space mission (named “PromISSe” in keeping with ESA tradition), which is his first long-duration flight, Kuipers will participate in multiple experiments on the ISS, utilising his medical experience in the investigation of human physiology in microgravity.

Rounding out the Soyuz TMA-03M crew as Flight Engineer-2 (FE-2) is NASA astronaut Don Pettit, infamous in the space world for his passion for, skills with, and promotion of science, especially in microgravity. Born in Silverton, Oregon, on 20th April 1955 (current age 56), Dr. Pettit earned his Ph.D. in chemical engineering from the University of Arizona in 1983, prior to working at the Los Alamos National Laboratory until he was selected as a NASA astronaut in 1996.

Pettit has flown two previous space flights, ISS Expedition 6 from 2002 to 2003, and Space Shuttle mission STS-126 in November 2008.

His first ISS flight, Expedition 6, was not without incident. Pettit, who launched to the ISS along with fellow crewmembers Ken Bowersox and Nikolai Budarin aboard Space Shuttle Endeavour on the STS-113 mission on 23rd November 2002, was only scheduled to stay aboard the ISS for four months, returning on STS-114 in March 2003. However, during Pettit’s stay aboard the ISS, the Space Shuttle Columbia tragedy occurred, on 1st February 2003.

While the tragedy was of course a tremendous loss to the Expedition 6 crew, the subsequent grounding of the Space Shuttle fleet had left the Expedition 6 crew with no ride home. Eventually, the crew was able to return to Earth two months later than planned inside their Soyuz TMA-1 lifeboat on 4th May 2003, which at the time was an untested new TMA (200 series) variant of the Soyuz. Thus, although Pettit has previously done a re-entry in a Soyuz, this will be his first launch in a Soyuz.

Click here for ISS News Articles: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/tag/iss/

During Expedition 6, Pettit became known for his “Saturday Morning Science” projects, which he performed in his own free time, videoed, and downlinked to Earth for public release. Now that the ISS is a fully completed National Laboratory, with scientific capabilities an order of magnitude better than they were during Expedition 6, Pettit is expected to continue his microgravity scientific demonstrations during Expeditions 30 and 31.

However, with a more capable ISS comes a more maintenance-heavy ISS, and since the crews may need to conduct “Saturday Morning Maintenance” in future, Pettit has suggested that his science projects may become “Saturday Afternoon Science” this time around (a dedicated thread for coverage of Dr. Pettit’s science activities exists in the ISS Section of the NASASpaceflight Forum).

Progress M-12M failure:

Of relevance to the Soyuz TMA-03M launch was the 24th August launch failure of the Progress M-12M/44P spacecraft, caused by a premature shutdown of the uncrewed Soyuz-U booster’s third stage RD-0110 engine, due to a blocked fuel line leading to the engine’s gas generator.

As much as the issue was billed as a one off, which was subsequently confirmed by the successful 30th October flight of the Soyuz-U with Progress M-13M/45P and the 14th November flight of the crewed Soyuz-FG with Soyuz TMA-22/28S, all eyes were on the Soyuz-FG booster during launch, although the RD-0110 engine used in by the vehicle has been tested and confirmed to be free of defects. The vehicle performed without issue during ascent.

While the threat of a station de-crewing in wake of the Progress M-12M failure was alleviated by the successful 16th November docking of the Soyuz TMA-22 spacecraft, a successful Soyuz TMA-03M docking on Friday would put the ISS back up to six crewmembers for the first time since the 16th September departure of Soyuz TMA-21/26S, although ISS did enjoy a brief period of six crewmembers during the six day handover between the new Soyuz TMA-22 and outgoing Soyuz TMA-02M crews from 16th to 22nd November.

Thus, the successful launch enables the ISS to return to stable six-crew operations by yearend, nearly four months after the launch failure of Progress M-12M, which has at best highlighted the dangers of relying on one launch system for crewed access to the ISS.

(Images via Roscosmos and NASA)

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Soyuz Mission:

This was the second Soyuz to launch from the newly constructed launch site at Kourou, following the successful mission to loft two European “Galileo” navigation satellites into orbit via the Soyuz ST-B.

The veteran Soyuz launch vehicle is a descendent of the R-7 Semyorka, the world’s first intercontinental ballistic missile. The R-7 was designed by Sergei Korolev, and first flew in 1957. A modified version was used to launch the first satellite, Sputnik 1, on 4 October of that year.

The R-7 formed the basis for the Luna, Vostok, Voskhod, Molniya and Soyuz families of rockets, and to date all Soviet and Russian manned spaceflights have been launched using rockets derived from the R-7.

The Soyuz, which first flew in 1966, was a modification of the Voskhod rocket featuring an upgraded and lighter telemetry system, and more fuel efficient engines. It was initially used to launch only Soyuz spacecraft; however with the introduction of the Soyuz-U in 1973 it began to launch other satellites as well.

The Soyuz-U, which remains in service, is the most-flown orbital launch system ever developed, having made around 750 flights to date, plus around 90 more in the Soyuz-U2 configuration optimised to use synthetic propellant.

The Soyuz-2 was developed from the older Soyuz models, and features digital flight control systems and modernised engines. It first flew in 2004. Two variants are currently in service; the Soyuz-2-1a, and the Soyuz-2-1b which features an RD-0124 third stage engine which provides additional thrust. The RD-0124 was declared operational on 3 May 2011.

A third configuration, the Soyuz-2-1v, is currently under development and is expected to make its maiden flight next year. It features an NK-33 engine in place of the RD-108A used on the core stages of the other configurations, and does not include the strapon boosters used by other configurations.

The Soyuz-2 forms the basis for the Soyuz-ST rocket, which has been optimised to fly from Kourou, and also incorporates a flight termination system and a modified telemetry system.

The vehicle consists of four boosters (first stage), a central core (second stage), a third stage, and the restartable Fregat upper stage (fourth stage). Each vehicle also includes a payload adapter/dispenser and fairing.

The inaugural flight of the upgraded Soyuz 2-1b launch vehicle was successfully performed on December 27, 2006, launching the Corot scientific spacecraft for the French Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales.

As part of the Soyuz’ upgrades for its operations from the Spaceport, the launcher’s flight control system is modernized with a digital control system. This system incorporates a digital computer and inertial measurement unit that are based on proven technology – giving the Soyuz improved navigation accuracy and control capability.

The new digital control system provides a more flexible and efficient attitude control system, and it gives the additional flight control authority required when the new, enlarged Soyuz ST payload fairing is installed on the vehicle. In addition, it improves flight accuracy for the Soyuz’ first three stages, and provides the ability to perform in-flight roll maneuvers as well as in-plane yaw steering (dog-leg) maneuvers.

For this Soyuz – designated VS02 in Arianespace’s launcher family numbering sequence – the mixed payload consisted of France’s Pléiades 1 and the Chilean SSOT satellites for civilian and defense image gathering, along with four French ELISA micro-satellite demonstrators for defense-related electronic intelligence gathering (ELINT).
 
Pléiades 1 was deployed 55 minutes after Soyuz’ liftoff, followed four minutes later by the simultaneous release of all ELISA satellites. Completing the mission was the separation of SSOT, which occurred 3 hours, 26 minutes after liftoff.

France’s 970-kg Pléiades 1 dual-use imaging satellite and the 117-kg Chilean SSOT multi-role observation spacecraft, along with a cluster of four French ELISA demonstrator satellites for defense-related electronic intelligence gathering (ELINT), which weigh 120 kg each, marked a complicated mission profile for Arianespace.

These payloads were released into Sun-synchronous orbits in a multi-step process during the flight, involving the Soyuz’ Fregat upper stage carrying four propulsion burns, with a fifth to deorbit the stage.

The mission was Arianespace’s year-ending flight at the Spaceport, and comes less than two months after the company’s historic maiden launch of Soyuz from French Guiana in October. Also scheduled in 2011 is another Soyuz launch at Baikonur Cosmodrome with six Globalstar second-generation satellites, which is scheduled during the week of December 25 and will be conducted on behalf of Arianespace by its Starsem affiliate.

To date, Arianespace has logged seven missions in 2011. The five flights with its heavy-lift Ariane 5 during the year orbited eight telecommunications satellites (Arabsat-5C, ASTRA 1N, BSAT-3c/JCSAT-110R, GSAT-8, Intelsat New Dawn, SES-2, ST-2 and Yahsat Y1A), along with an Automated Transfer Vehicle for servicing of the International Space Station. 

The other two launches were Soyuz missions, one operating from Baikonur Cosmodrome with six of the Globalstar second-generation satellites, and Arianespace’s maiden flight of Soyuz from the Spaceport, which lofted two Galileo IOV (In-Orbit Validation) navigation satellites.

(Images via Arianespace)

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Successful Launch:

Glonass is the Russian version to the US Global Positioning System (GPS), which several nations are building for the purpose of independence from the American-controlled system.

Like the US GPS system, Glonass can be used by both military and civilian entities, and is designed for both military and civilian uses. This Glonass satellite was designated as number 46, and a Block-46 design – which was separated from the Upper Stage three hours into the mission.

The recent Soyuz-based successes are vitally important for the under-pressure Roscosmos, following the Progress M-12M failure, which grounded the Soyuz fleet.

Russia has since enjoyed a successful Progress mission (M-13M), safely launched and landed their Soyuz TMA spacecraft (TMA-22 – up, TMA-02M down).

However, hope has been lost for Fobos-Grunt’s mission to the Martian moon of Phobos, despite last week’s positive news relating to a level of communications with the spacecraft via ESA’s Perth-based assets. Even if the spacecraft can be restored – pending successful translations of encrypted telemetry – the window is now closed on its primary mission.

Updates on this week’s communication efforts with the spacecraft are pending – *refer to this live update thread for the latest*.

Soyuz 2-1B:

The Soyuz-2-1 rocket is a descendent of the R-7 Semyorka, the world’s first intercontinental ballistic missile. The R-7 was designed by Sergei Korolev, and first flew in 1957. A modified version was used to launch the first satellite, Sputnik 1, on 4 October of that year.

The R-7 formed the basis for the Luna, Vostok, Voskhod, Molniya and Soyuz families of rockets, and to date all Soviet and Russian manned spaceflights have been launched using rockets derived from the R-7.

The Soyuz, which first flew in 1966, was a modification of the Voskhod rocket featuring an upgraded and lighter telemetry system, and more fuel efficient engines. It was initially used to launch only Soyuz spacecraft; however with the introduction of the Soyuz-U in 1973 it began to launch other satellites as well.

The Soyuz-U, which remains in service, is the most-flown orbital launch system ever developed, having made around 750 flights to date, plus around 90 more in the Soyuz-U2 configuration optimised to use synthetic propellant.

The Soyuz-2 was developed from the older Soyuz models, and features digital flight control systems and modernised engines. It first flew in 2004, and this is its twelfth launch.

Two variants are currently in service; the Soyuz-2-1a, and the Soyuz-2-1b which features an RD-0124 third stage engine which provides additional thrust. The RD-0124 was declared operational on 3 May 2011.

A third configuration, the Soyuz-2-1v, is currently under development and is expected to make its maiden flight next year. It features an NK-33 engine in place of the RD-108A used on the core stages of the other configurations, and does not include the strapon boosters used by other configurations.

The Soyuz-2 forms the basis for the Soyuz-ST rocket, which made its maiden flight from Kourou in French Guiana this year. The Soyuz-ST is optimised to fly from Kourou, and also incorporates a flight termination system and a modified telemetry system.

The launch of the Soyuz-ST carried two Galileo IOV-M1 satellites into orbit.

The core stage of the Soyuz-2, the Blok-A, is powered by a single RD-108A engine. This is augmented for the first two minutes of flight by four boosters, each of which is powered by an RD-107A engine. The Fregat Upper Stage, is powered by an S5.98M engine, which uses unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine as propellant and nitrogen tetroxide as an oxidiser.

The Fregat first flew in 2000, and has been used on Soyuz-U, Soyuz-FG, Soyuz-2 and Zenit rockets.

(Image: Mil.ru and Starsem)

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Soyuz TMA-02M background:

Launched to the ISS on 7th June, with a docking to the Mini Research Module-1 (MRM-1) on 9th June, the crew of Soyuz TMA-02M were the second to fly on the new digital Soyuz, and the last Soyuz crew to fly in the Space Shuttle era. Thus, when the crew of Soyuz TMA-02M return to Earth, they will become the last ever people to have flown inside a Space Shuttle during their current space mission.

Soyuz TMA-02M was originally scheduled to return to Earth on 16th November, but that date was pushed back to the 22nd November in order to allow for an unusually short six day handover with the crew of Soyuz TMA-22/28S, which docked to the ISS on 16th November.

The crews of Soyuz TMA-02M and Soyuz TMA-22 were originally scheduled to fly in space together for around two months, however since the launch of Soyuz TMA-22 was delayed from late September to 14th November due to August’s Progress M-12M launch failure, the short handover period became necessary.

It was not possible to delay the landing of Soyuz TMA-22 past the 22nd due to adverse weather and lighting conditions at the Kazakhstan landing site. Therefore, in order to aid in the handover, the crew of Soyuz TMA-02M have made a series of videos explaining the current status of the ISS to the Soyuz TMA-22 crew.

While the docking of Soyuz TMA-22 to MRM-2 last Wednesday temporarily increased the ISS to six crewmembers, tonight’s Soyuz TMA-02M undocking from MRM-1 again reduced the ISS back down to three crewmembers for around a month.

Click here for ISS News Articles: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/tag/iss/

Undocking & landing procedure:

After spending the last five and-a-half months in space, the crew of Soyuz TMA-02M, consisting of Russian cosmonaut and Soyuz commander Sergey Volkov, US astronaut Mike Fossum, and Japanese astronaut Satoshi Furukawa, entered their Soyuz capsule, docked at the MRM-1 Nadir port, at around 7:45 PM GMT tonight.

The docking probe hatch on the Soyuz was then closed by the Soyuz TMA-02M crew, and the docking drogue hatch on the ISS/MRM-1 was closed by the ISS crew. Prior to hatch closure, BZV docking clamps were removed, and the hatch seals were wiped down to ensure that no debris will impede a good pressure seal.

Following hatch closure, the Soyuz TMA-02M crew donned their Sokol launch and entry suits, entered the Descent Module (SA), and closed the hatch between the SA and Orbital Module (BO). At 10:05 PM GMT, ISS attitude control was handed over from US Momentum Management, which uses Control Moment Gyroscopes (CMGs), to Russian Motion Control System (MCS), which uses thrusters.

Following ISS maneuver to the undocking attitude, which saw the underside of the ISS to which Soyuz TMA-02M was docked positioned to face the negative side of the Velocity Vector, Soyuz TMA-02M undocked from MRM-1 at 11:00 PM GMT.

Following the undocking, Soyuz TMA-02M conducted stationkeeping with the ISS at 50m in order to perform a unique test of the Soyuz’ RODK (Manual Attitude Control by Digital Mode) at 11:05 PM GMT.

This test was necessary since Soyuz TMA-02M is only the second in the new “digital” TMA-M series of Soyuzes.

The test was very similar to the one preformed during the Soyuz TMA-01M/24S undocking back on 16th March, although that test included both RODK and ROAK (Manual Attitude Control by Analogue Mode), and used ammeters to measure current on the Neptun-ME control panel due to a failed display.

Soyuz TMA-02M, however, only tested the RODK, but also tested in response to the performance anomaly of DPO-B rendezvous & docking thruster #14 observed during the descent of Soyuz TMA-01M in March.

Soyuz TMA-01M thruster 14 experienced a thrust underperformance of 40-60% of nominal value during descent, but according to NASA, it “had no impact on the nominal descent which uses the SKD main engine. Updates were now introduced in the control system for the event of an SKD failure during the execution of the de-orbit burn”.

The procedure for the RODK test was slightly different for Soyuz TMA-02M, since it had undocked from MRM-1, whereas Soyuz TMA-01M undocked from MRM-2. As Soyuzes at MRM-1 are docked at a 40 degree angle to the station’s axis, a roll menuver of 40 degrees will be required after initiation of stationkeeping in order to place Soyuz TMA-02M in the same orientation to the ISS as Soyuz TMA-01M was when it undocked from MRM-2. The RODK test occurred using the same procedure as before.

Following completion of the RODK test, a separation burn was performed, and roughly two and a half hours later, Soyuz TMA-02M conducted the four minute de-orbit burn at 1:32 AM GMT Tuesday morning.

Tri-module separation between the BO, SA and Instrumentation/Propulsion Module (PAO) will occurred at 1:59 AM GMT, followed by entry interface at 2:02 AM GMT. Eight minutes later, parachutes deployed at 2:10 AM GMT, followed fifteen minutes later by touchdown at 2:25 AM GMT in Kazakhstan, location 51 degrees North, 67 degrees 10 minutes East.

Following crew extraction from the descent module, they were flown to a nearby airfield by helicopter, whereupon the Soyuz TMA-02M crew will part ways for the first time in nearly six months, with Sergey Volkov boarding an aircraft back to Star City in Moscow, and Mike Fossum & Satoshi Furukawa boarding a “direct return” aircraft back to Ellington Field in Houston, with Mike Fossum arriving back at his Houston home roughly 24 hours after landing, in time for Thanksgiving with his family.

Expedition 30:

With the undocking of Soyuz TMA-02M, Expedition 29 will end and Expedition 30 will begin, with American astronaut Dan Burbank in command of the ISS following the change of command ceremony between Fossum and Burbank that occurred yesterday.

The three-person Expedition 30 crew, consisting of Burbank and Russian cosmonauts Anton Shkaplerov & Anatoly Ivanishin, will continue the station’s rigorous program of scientific utilization until they are joined on 23rd December by the Soyuz TMA-03M crew, consisting of American astronaut Don Pettit, European astronaut André Kuipers, and Russian cosmonaut Oleg Kononenko, who will launch from Kazakhstan on 21st December.

The arrival of Soyuz TMA-03M, at the MRM-1 port to be vacated tonight by Soyuz TMA-02M, will place the ISS back at six crewmembers and bring an end to the disruptions caused by August’s Progress M-12M crash, as much as last week’s successful Soyuz TMA-22 docking has ended concerns of a de-crewing of the station.

Looking ahead to 2012, the Expedition 30 crew will continue scientific research aboard the station, and prepare to receive the first commercial cargo vehicles aboard the station.

(Images: NASA – more images will be added during the events of crew return) (NSF and L2 are providing full future level coverage, available no where else on the internet, from Orion and SLS to ISS and COTS/CRS/CCDEV, to European and Russian vehicles.)

(Click here: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/l2/ - to view how you can access L2)

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Soyuz TMA-22 docking:

Soyuz TMA-22, also going by its American designation of 28S, docked to the Zenith port of the Russian Mini Research Module-2 (MRM-2) “Poisk”, vacated exactly two months ago (16th September) by Soyuz TMA-21/26S. Soyuz TMA-22 is expected to remain docked to MRM-2 for exactly four months, whereupon it will undock and land on 16th March 2012.

The total number of Russian vehicles docked at the ISS now stands at three – Soyuz TMA-22/28S at MRM-2 Zenith, Soyuz TMA-02M/27S at MRM-1 “Rassvet” Nadir, and Progress M-13M/45P at Docking Compartment-1 (DC-1) “Pirs” Nadir. Soyuz TMA-22 is the last ever “analogue” Soyuz TMA variant to dock at the ISS, as all future Soyuzes will be “digital” TMA-M variants, which include modernised electronics and greater cargo carrying capacity.

The successful arrival of the three Soyuz TMA-22 crewmembers, American astronaut Dan Burbank, and Russian cosmonauts Anton Shkaplerov and Anatoly Ivanishin – who are the first people to arrive at the ISS since the crew of the final Space Shuttle mission in July – eliminates concerns about a possible de-crewing of the ISS in light of the August failure of the Progress M-12M/44P cargo vessel, which sent the spacecraft crashing to the ground after a total loss of thrust of its booster rocket.

The failure, caused by a blocked fuel line leading to the gas generator of the Soyuz-U booster’s third stage RD-0110 engine, caused a suspension of all crewed spaceflights due to the similar third stage in use on the crewed Soyuz-FG booster.

This caused concerns that a new crew would not be able to launch to the ISS before the current crew had to return home – a date limited by landing site darkness/weather concerns, and the roughly 200 day orbital lifetime of the Soyuz spacecraft.

While NASA managers set about devising contingency procedures to operate the ISS in an unscrewed configuration – a risky proposition at best – a Russian commission attributed the blocked fuel line that caused the August launch failure to a one-off human error in vehicle processing.

Additional procedures were put in place to ensure the problem did not re-occur, such as extra inspections, re-testing, and improved worker oversight.

The successful launch of the Progress M-13M/45P spacecraft atop the Soyuz-U booster on 30th August confirmed that the defect was a one-off, which cleared the way for the resumption of crewed launches of the Soyuz-FG booster. 

The successful docking means that new crewmembers have arrived at the ISS before the outgoing crewmembers’ departure, thus laying ISS de-crew concerns to rest.

Future ISS crew rotation plans:

Although the ISS is now back up to six crewmembers after operating with a reduced three crewmembers since the departure of Soyuz TMA-21/26S on 16th September, the boost in crewmembers will be short-lived, since three crewmembers are scheduled to depart the ISS in less than a week.

Those crewmembers – American astronaut Mike Fossum, Japanese astronaut Satoshi Furukawa, and Russian cosmonaut Sergei Volkov, will undock from MRM-1 in their Soyuz TMA-02M/27S spacecraft and land in wintry Kazakhstan on 22nd November. This means that the newly arrived Soyuz TMA-22 crewmembers will have only six days to perform a handover with the outgoing Soyuz TMA-02M crewmembers – a highly unusual situation since handovers usually last around two weeks.

As such, the outgoing crewmembers have pre-recorded numerous video tutorials for the new crewmembers in order to shorten the amount of physical handover that will need to be accomplished.

The short handover period is due to the fact that the Soyuz TMA-22 launch was delayed from late September to 14th November by the August Progress launch failure. The Soyuz TMA-02M undocking and landing was also delayed from its originally planned date of 16th November to 22nd November in order to allow for the longest handover possible.

It is not possible to delay the Soyuz TMA-02M landing any further due to adverse weather and lighting conditions at the Kazakhstan landing site that will be present after the 22nd.

Following the undocking of Soyuz TMA-02M, Expedition 29 will come to an end, and Expedition 30 will officially begin with US astronaut Dan Burbank of the US Coast Guard in command.

Expedition 30 will fly with three crewmembers until the arrival of Soyuz TMA-03M on 23rd December with US astronaut Don Pettit, European astronaut André Kuipers, and Russian cosmonaut Oleg Kononenko. That will put the US crew rotation schedule back on track for the first time since the August Progress launch failure.

The major goal of the Expedition 30 increment is to perform the research that the ISS was designed for now that station construction is completed.

A minimum of 35 crew hours per week will be devoted to science activities – although some weeks could move into the 40s once six crewmembers are restored. The de-crew preparations (mostly jumper reconfigurations) that were made to the ISS by the Expedition 29 crew will also be undone – much to the delight of ISS flight controllers.

Click here for ISS News Articles: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/tag/iss/

A number of cargo craft will arrive and depart the ISS during Expedition 30, including the departure of Progress M-13M/45P from DC-1 Nadir on 25th January, and the arrival of Progress M-14M/46P at the same port three days later on 28th January.

Although marking the end of an era by not getting to fly inside a Space Shuttle due to its retirement in July, the Expedition 30 crew will usher in a new era by being the first humans to fly inside a commercial spacecraft when SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft arrives at the ISS, currently likely to be sometime in February.

The Expedition 30 crew will be responsible for reaching out the station’s welcoming Canadarm2 to shake hands with a commercial spacecraft for the first time in history, signifying a new partnership that will see commercial companies take over the cargo delivery role previously fulfilled by the Space Shuttle.

Expedition 30 will also see a Russian spacewalk performed by Kononenko and Shkaplerov on 14th February. Expedition 30 will end on 16th March with the undocking and landing of Soyuz TMA-22 with Burbank, Shkaplerov and Ivanishin after an unusually short four month mission due to their two month launch delay.

(Images: NASA, Roscosmos, L2) (NSF and L2 are providing full future level coverage, available no where else on the internet, from Orion and SLS to ISS and COTS/CRS/CCDEV, to European and Russian vehicles.)

(Click here: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/l2/ - to view how you can access L2)

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Soyuz Launch:

Expedition 30′s NASA astronaut Dan Burbank and Russian cosmonauts Anton Shkaplerov and Anatoly Ivanishin are riding on what is the first manned mission since Atlantis’ final NASA mission as STS-135, on a flight which was delayed by one of numerous problems suffered by the Russian space program in 2011.

Atlantis’ mission was instrumental in stockpiling nearly a year’s worth of supplies for the ISS, which proved to be essential after the the failure of the Progress M-12M/44P mission on August 28, 2011.

While the logistical situation wasn’t an immediate concern, the commonality between the Progress and Soyuz TMA launch hardware – specifically the Upper Stage – effectively grounded both vehicles.

This led to contingency discussions surrounding the potential need to de-crew the ISS.

A Russian commission quickly determined the cause of the failure to be a blocked fuel line leading to the gas generator in the Soyuz-U third stage’s RD-0110 engine. The blocked fuel line caused a loss of pressure in the gas generator, which in turn caused a shutdown of the RD-0110 engine’s turbopump, leading to a total loss of thrust.

While the blocked fuel line was attributed to a random, one-off event caused by human error in vehicle processing, all Soyuz third stages were ordered to be sent back to their assembly plant for thorough testing. With the tests confirming that the previous defect was indeed a one-off, Russia cleared the Soyuz booster for resumption of flights.

In order to prevent a re-occurrence of the defect, numerous new safety measures were implemented, including video cameras to record all stages of Soyuz booster assembly.

With the successful launch of the Progress M-13M/45P to the ISS at the end of October, confidence was restored in the fleet, allowing for managers to proceed towards the launch of the manned mission via Soyuz TMA-22 – which is the last of the anolog Soyuz vehicles, as much as the new digital version of the spacecraft has already flown.

Click here for ISS News Articles: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/tag/iss/

The RD-0110 driven Upper Stage stage was of major interest during the launch events, as much as the entire Soyuz launch vehicle remains one of the most reliable on the planet.

In fact, there are several variants of the veteran launcher, which is a descendent of the R-7 Semyorka, the world’s first intercontinental ballistic missile. The R-7 was designed by Sergei Korolev, and first flew in 1957. A modified version was used to launch the first satellite, Sputnik 1, on 4 October of that year.

The R-7 formed the basis for the Luna, Vostok, Voskhod, Molniya and Soyuz families of rockets, and to date all Soviet and Russian manned spaceflights have been launched using rockets derived from the R-7.

The Soyuz, which first flew in 1966, was a modification of the Voskhod rocket featuring an upgraded and lighter telemetry system, and more fuel efficient engines. It was initially used to launch only Soyuz spacecraft; however with the introduction of the Soyuz-U in 1973 it began to launch other satellites as well.

The Soyuz-U, which remains in service, is the most-flown orbital launch system ever developed, having made around 750 flights to date, plus around 90 more in the Soyuz-U2 configuration optimised to use synthetic propellant.

The Soyuz-FG itself – an improved descendent of the Soyuz U – has performed 23 flights without issue. The vehicle has an analog control system, but it will eventually be replaced by the Soyuz-2.

The Soyuz-2 was developed from the older Soyuz models, and features digital flight control systems and modernised engines. Two variants are currently in service; the Soyuz-2-1a, and the Soyuz-2-1b which features an RD-0124 third stage engine which provides additional thrust. The RD-0124 was declared operational on 3 May 2011.

A third configuration, the Soyuz-2-1v, is currently under development and is expected to make its maiden flight next year. It features an NK-33 engine in place of the RD-108A used on the core stages of the other configurations, and does not include the strapon boosters used by other configurations.

The Soyuz-2 forms the basis for the Soyuz-ST rocket, which made its maiden flight from Kourou in French Guiana this year. The Soyuz-ST is optimised to fly from Kourou, and also incorporates a flight termination system and a modified telemetry system.

Rendezvous with the ISS will take place on Wednesday, with docking expected around 12:33 am Eastern.

(Images: NASA, Roscosmos) (NSF and L2 are providing full future level coverage, available no where else on the internet, from Orion and SLS to ISS and COTS/CRS/CCDEV, to European and Russian vehicles.)

(Click here: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/l2/ - to view how you can access L2)

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Progress 45P: Breathing a sigh of relief:

Docking to the International Space Station (ISS) at 0741 EDT this morning, the Progress 45P resupply craft’s arrival at the ISS marked the first time since July 10, 2011 that a spacecraft has successfully reached the international laboratory.

That previous mission, the STS-135/ULF-7 flight of Space Shuttle orbiter Atlantis, marked the final time that large-scale resupply efforts – a  luxury only afforded by the tremendous up-mass and down-mass capabilities of the Space Shuttle orbiter – could be conducted by NASA and its international partner agencies.

As such, the Atlantis’s mission was instrumental in stockpiling nearly a year’s worth of supplies for the ISS and its ever-rotating crew.

Thus, when the Progress 44P mission failed to reach orbit on August 28, 2011 – just over one month after the end of the Space Shuttle Program – the ISS Program was not faced with the immediate demand to de-crew the Station as enough supplies existed to support a crew until the March 2012 time frame.

However, the cause of the Progress 44P launch failure was quickly determined to be with the rocket itself, not the Progress resupply craft. The issue here became that the rocket used to launch the Progress unmanned resupply crafts, the Soyuz-U, shares several third stage features with the Soyuz-FG rocket used to launched the manned Soyuz vehicles for ISS crew rotation and support missions.

As such, Russian Federal Space Agency officials immediately grounded the Soyuz rocket  family and stated that no flights – both manned or unmanned – would take place until the issue was fixed.

This meant that the planned 30 September 2011 launch of the next three-person subset of the ISS crew on a Soyuz-FG rocket would be delayed indefinitely.

Since Soyuz spacecraft have an on-orbit lifetime certification limit, the very real possibility that the International Space Station would have to be de-crewed if Russia could not fix the Soyuz rocket family issue before the scheduled mid-/late-November return to Earth of the three members of the Expedition 29 crew arose.

According to official NASA documentation available on L2, “The big news for ISS of course is that with the 44P Progress launch anomaly there is some risk that the next crew rotation will not happen and we may need to be prepared to handle a period of time where the ISS does not have crew on board.

“MOD has been somewhat prepared for this eventuality of course. But with the advance notice of this possibility, Flight Director Scott Stover and his team, working in concert with the current Flight Director Increment lead Royce Renfrew, has been working hard re-looking at our de-crew plan.”

In all, the MOD notes praised the work and preparedness of the teams in dealing with this potentiality. “They have done an outstanding job thinking through all of the possible risks and making sure that we [were] minimizing any threats to ISS while there [would have been] no people on board to assist in dealing with issues.”

However, Russian officials have found and corrected the issue in the Soyuz rocket family, and the risk of de-crew has dropped into the “low” category of probability.

What could have been: De-crewing the ISS:

While the overall outlook and possibility for de-crewing the ISS dropped significantly with Sunday’s successful launch of the Progress 45P from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, the preparations made by NASA and RSA for the possible de-crew scenario were nothing short of impressive as they once against highlighted how these two space agencies can deal with anything that develops.

As the MOD notes relate, “The overall configuration of the station [would have] largely [been] to close most of the hatches in case of a depress event, shut down all unnecessary equipment, and run only the gear required to keep the overall systems functional and maintain some capability for payloads (especially not lose existing science data).”

Likewise, all major fans and thermal systems would have remained online during the de-crew event as they would have been needed to prevent temperature gradients and condensation build up.

But keeping systems online and closing hatches between modules were not the only things that the ISS community had to consider in this case.

“Working with the avionics community, the team came up with some very clever ways to work around possible failure cases,” notes the MOD statement.

“If we lost Sband communications for some reason, in the past we would have to perform all our USOS communication using the Russian communication assets thru ground sites only. This is a very limited capability. Our team came up with a way to safely connect the SSC laptop to the PCS command and control laptops over the Ethernet.

“This [would have allowed] the ground to virtually operate the ISS by calling up CDDT displays to look at telemetry and execute commands using the Ku communication system routed via the OCA” in the event that Sband communication capability was lost after the ISS had been de-crewed.

Click here for ISS News Articles: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/tag/iss/

Paving the way for the 28S Soyuz mission:

More than just demonstrating the safe return to flight of the Soyuz rocket and the Progress resupply crafts for the International Space Station, the successful launch and docking of Progress 45P specifically paves the way for the scheduled November 14th launch of the Soyuz 28S mission to the ISS with the final three crewmembers of the Expedition 29 increment.

With a readiness review for the Soyuz-FG rocket and TMA-22 spacecraft completed before Sunday’s launch of the Progress 45P spacecraft, Russian officials gave the Soyuz rocket and the crew capsule a “tentative ‘GO’ pending final test results.”

That final test was largely considered to be the safe, in-flight demonstration of the Soyuz-U rocket’s third stage during the launch of the Progress 45P craft. 

Russian officials are expected to sign off on the launch of the 28S Soyuz mission later this week or early next week since there were no other “formal” issues identified with the rocket or spacecraft other than the tech issue which appears to have been solved.

Meanwhile, on the US side of preparations, the 28S Stage Operations Readiness Review (SORR) was held yesterday, with a final Flight Readiness Review planned before the Nov. 14 launch date.

(Images: NASA, Roscosmos) (NSF and L2 are providing full future level coverage, available no where else on the internet, from Orion and SLS to ISS and COTS/CRS/CCDEV, to European and Russian vehicles.)

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Previous failure:

Following the 24th August liftoff of the Soyuz-U booster carrying the Progress M-12M/44P resupply spacecraft to the ISS, the booster’s third stage unexpectedly shut down shortly after ignition, causing the third stage with attached Progress spacecraft to fall back to Earth and disintegrate in the atmosphere.

The failure could not have come at a worse time for the ISS, with the workhorse Space Shuttle having been retired only the previous month, and commercial resupply spacecraft still engaged in preparations for their debut launches to the station.

While the loss of supplies from Progress M-12M wasn’t a huge concern to the ISS due to the “heavy” delivery of cargo by the final Space Shuttle mission in July, more concerning was the fact that the third stage of the Soyuz-U booster used to launch unmanned spacecraft to the ISS shares a lot of commonality with the third stage of the Soyuz-FG booster used to launch crews to the station.

Following the launch failure, all Soyuz boosters were grounded pending an investigation, a move which forced delays to other crew and cargo flights to the ISS.

With impressive speed, a Russian commission quickly determined the cause of the failure to be a blocked fuel line leading to the gas generator in the Soyuz-U third stage’s RD-0110 engine. The blocked fuel line caused a loss of pressure in the gas generator, which in turn caused a shutdown of the RD-0110 engine’s turbopump, leading to a total loss of thrust.

While the blocked fuel line was attributed to a random, one-off event caused by human error in vehicle processing, all Soyuz third stages were ordered to be sent back to their assembly plant for through testing. With the tests confirming that the previous defect was indeed a one-off, Russia cleared the Soyuz booster for resumption of flights.

In order to prevent a re-occurrence of the defect, numerous new safety measures were implemented, including video cameras to record all stages of Soyuz booster assembly.

Numerous Russian media reports have cited ageing workforces, poor salaries, and a lack of investment as causes for the decline in the quality of the usually highly reliable Soyuz booster, which has completed well over one-thousand successful flights.

Fallout from the failure:

The largest concern resulting from the launch failure was that the Soyuz booster would not be returned to flight in time to launch a new crew to the ISS before the current one had to return to Earth, leading to a de-crewing of the station.

While operating the ISS in an un-crewed configuration is technically possible, it is highly undesirable due to the loss of scientific research and increased risk resulting from on-board failures, as detailed at length in previous articles on this site.

In order to maintain a six-person crew aboard the ISS for as long as possible in light of the delayed flight schedule resulting from the Soyuz booster’s grounding, the landing of the Soyuz TMA-21/26S spacecraft with three crewmembers was delayed from 8th September to 16th September (a longer delay wasn’t possible due to lighting issues at the Kazakhstan landing site, and the limited Soyuz orbital lifetime).

Once Soyuz TMA-21 had departed on 16th September, the ISS was forced to operate with only three crewmembers for an extended period of time, due to the delay of the Soyuz TMA-22/28S launch with three crewmembers from late September to mid-November. In spite of the lower staffing levels, the station crew have still been meeting their commitments of 35 crew hours per week of scientific activities now that the ISS has entered its full utilisation phase.

While Sunday’s successful launch now makes a de-crewing of the station unlikely, such a situation has highlighted the dangers of relying solely on the Soyuz booster for crew access to the ISS – an issue which had been raised many times prior to the failure – but with politicians only taking serious notice after the failure, via hearings into the Soyuz booster return to flight plans, and progress of commercial vehicles to transport crews to the ISS in the mid-2020s timeframe.

Sunday’s Soyuz launch:

Today’s Soyuz-U launch of the Progress M-13M/45P spacecraft was a very significant event, since its outcome determined the entire immediate future of the ISS by confirming that the cause of the previous failure has been resolved, and that the Soyuz booster is ready to resume service launching crews to the ISS, averting a de-crewing of the station. Sunday’s launch also marks the first successful launch to the ISS in the post-Shuttle era.

It was decided to launch an uncrewed Soyuz-U booster to the ISS prior to a crewed Soyuz-FG in order to successfully demonstrate nominal operation of the common third stage prior to risking a crew – as much as analysis has shown that had a crew been riding the failed booster in August, the Soyuz capsule’s safety systems would have allowed the crew to make a safe landing back on Earth.

Following its liftoff from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan at 10:11 AM GMT, the Progress M-13M spacecraft successfully reached orbit and deployed its solar arrays. Aboard the Progress is approximately three tonnes of propellant, food, water, crew provisions, replacement parts and other miscellaneous items – including two iPad tablet computers for the personal use of the Russian crewmembers.

Following an unusual three days of free flight instead of the usual two, Progress M-13M will rendezvous with and dock to the ISS at the Docking Compartment-1 (DC-1) “Pirs” Nadir port on Wednesday (2nd November) at 11:40 AM GMT.

The DC-1 Nadir port was vacated yesterday (Saturday 29th October) by the Progress M-10M/42P spacecraft, which undocked at 9:01 AM GMT as was de-orbited for destructive re-entry and splashdown into the Pacific Ocean around four hours later. Progress M-10M had been docked to the ISS for exactly six months, having linked up with the orbiting outpost back on 29th April.

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Progress M-10M had the unique claim to fame of being responsible for delaying the STS-134 launch of Space Shuttle Endeavour back in April – as much as Progress M-10M was happy to pose for a photo alongside Endeavour when Soyuz TMA-20/25S departed the station during STS-134 in May.

While Progress M-13M will never get the chance to meet a Space Shuttle orbiter, it will remain docked to the ISS for nearly three months, whereupon it will undock from DC-1 Nadir on 25th January 2012, releasing the Chibis-M satellite prior to de-orbiting.

Future schedule for the Soyuz booster:

Now that the Soyuz booster has successfully returned to flight and demonstrated safe operation of the third stage, the stage is now set for the 14th November launch of the Soyuz TMA-22/28S spacecraft with three crewmembers, for a docking to the ISS at the Mini Research Module-2 (MRM-2) “Poisk” Zenith port on 16th November.

The boosting of the ISS crew back up to six crewmembers will be short lived however, since following an extremely tight six day crew handover period, Soyuz TMA-02M/27S will undock from the MRM-1 Nadir port and land in Kazakhstan on 22nd November.

The Soyuz TMA-03M/29S spacecraft will then launch to the ISS on 21st December, for a docking to MRM-1 “Rassvet” Nadir on 23rd December. This will put the ISS back up the six crewmembers by year-end.

The next Progress launch – Progress M-14M/46P – is planned for 25th January 2012.

While the resumption of crewed launches of the Soyuz booster to the ISS has yet to occur, today’s successful launch of Progress M-13M has cleared a major hurdle toward getting the ISS back up to full capacity by demonstrating the diligence and professionalism of the Russian failure investigation teams in returning the Soyuz booster to safe operation.

(Images: NASA, Roscosmos and L2) (NSF and L2 are providing full future level coverage, available no where else on the internet, from Orion and SLS to ISS and COTS/CRS/CCDEV, to European and Russian vehicles.)

(Click here: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/l2/ - to view how you can access L2)

Related posts:

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