$28 billion of Sat launches projected

by Chris Bergin

The Teal Group Corporation – an analysis of trends within the aerospace/defense market – has announced it projects 176 GEO commercial satellites, worth a staggering $28.3 billion, will be launched between 2006 and 2015.

Peaking in 2009 with 23 launches in 2009, the Teal Group note the increase in launches projected by India and China will account for 20 percent of all global launches of GEO commercial satellites.

The study – announced during the Satellite 2006 conference and exposition – is the result of a new 10-year market forecast for geostationary orbit commercial satellites cites last year’s 19 orders – an increase of 37 percent over 2004 – for GEO commercial satellites as a major reason for the near-term increase in launch projections.

The entry into the market of at least a dozen new satellite operators will also result in orders during the next two years, which means that a relatively high number of satellites should continue to be launched in 2008-2009.

‘We’ve been launching an average of just over 15 large commercial satellites annually during the past three years, and we expect this level to remain about the same in 2006’ said Marco Caceres, lead analyst for Teal Group’s World Space Systems Briefing, the 1,400-page monthly-updated competitive intelligence service, in which this and nine other consolidated forecasts plus over 180 separate space program reports are published.

‘However, there will be some noticeable growth in the market beginning in 2007, with closer to 20 satellites going up each year during 2007-2009,’ added Caceres. ‘That will put the market back to where it was in the late 1990s.’

New operators such as TerreStar Networks and WildBlue Communications will join traditional operators such as Intelsat and SES Global. Also, countries such as China and India will build and launch many more satellites that they did during the past 10 years.

Of the total GEO commercial satellites forecasted, China and India alone will account for approximately 20 percent, compared with a 22 percent combined share for 19 US companies, including major players such as DirecTV, Echostar, Loral Skynet, Panamsat and SES Americom.

  GEO Commercial Satellites: Forecast, 2006-2015 (units)

  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total
   15   19   18   23   17   15   13   16   21   19   176

Unammed launch update section:

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