Russia’s Kosmos 1408 satellite was destroyed in orbit earlier on Tuesday in what appears to have been a demonstration of Russia’s Nudol anti-satellite missile. While the Russian government has not yet acknowledged the cause of the satellite’s breakup, concerns about debris from the satellite have already disrupted operations aboard the International Space Station and could pose a threat to other spacecraft in low Earth orbit for some time to come.
Breakups of satellites in orbit happen from time to time and can have several different causes. These can range from intentional destruction of a spacecraft – either by an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon or an onboard self-destruct – to accidents such as explosions or collisions with another spacecraft or piece of debris. Four countries – the United States, Russia, China and India – have demonstrated anti-satellite weapons against targets in orbit.
Both the United States and the Soviet Union carried out ASAT tests during the Cold War. The US weapon was the ASM-135, an air-launched missile that could be fired from an F-15 Eagle. Testing culminated in the interception and destruction of the P78-1 Solwind satellite on 13 September 1985. Instead of a missile-based system, the Soviet Union opted to develop the Istrebitel Sputnikov, or “fighter satellite”, which would enter orbit and maneuver to destroy its target. Several tests using specially-launched targets were carried out in the 1970s and early 1980s.
With the end of the Cold War, development of weapons to shoot down satellites became a lower priority, however in January 2007 the People’s Republic of China carried out a test against one of its own defunct weather satellites.
An SM-3 missile launches to destroy the USA-193 satellite in 2008 — via US Navy
The following year the US Navy used a modified SM-3 missile to destroy the USA-193 reconnaissance satellite. USA-193 had failed immediately after launch and the US characterized its interception as necessary to reduce the risk of it causing damage on Earth if it re-entered, however it demonstrated that the SM-3 could successfully target and shoot down a spacecraft in a low orbit.
In March 2019, India carried out its own anti-satellite test, shooting down a target that had been launched a few months earlier.
Russia has been developing its own anti-satellite system, Nudol, based on the A-235 anti-ballistic missile system. Nudol was first tested in 2014, with the first successful test occurring in late 2015 at the third attempt. Tests have continued over the last few years, although Monday’s was the first to involve the interception of an actual satellite in orbit.
A Nudol missile being prepared for a test launch in 2018 — via Russian Ministry of Defense
Kosmos 1408 was a Tselina-D electronic signals intelligence (ELINT) satellite launched on 16 September 1982 aboard a Tsyklon-3 rocket flying from Site 32/2 at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. Also known as Ikar, Tselina-D satellites were the larger counterparts of the Soviet Union’s Tselina-O spacecraft, with the smaller satellites initially serving to identify and locate radio sources which would then be observed by the Tselina-D spacecraft. Tselina-O deployments ceased in 1982, with later Tselina-D spacecraft operating on their own.
The satellites were developed by the OKB-586 design bureau – later known as Yuzhnoye – and each had a mass at launch of approximately 2,000 kilograms. The design life of the spacecraft was only around half a year, with Kosmos 1408 having been long derelict by the time of its destruction. It operated in an orbit about 630 kilometers above the Earth’s surface during its lifetime, although atmospheric drag from 39 years in orbit had considerably lowered this. Shortly before its interception, Kosmos 1408 was in a 472 by 498-kilometer orbit, inclined at 82.6 degrees to the equator.
The Nudol missile was most likely launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome around 02:45 UTC (05:45 Moscow Time) on Monday, as Kosmos 1408 passed overhead. Notices to Airmen (NOTAMS) published to warn pilots of hazardous activity indicated that a missile launch was planned from Plesetsk around this time.
Here is the pass of Kosmos-1408 (red line) northbound over Plesetsk at about 0245 UTC Nov 15. Well aligned with the NOTAM areas (indicated) for the suspected Nudol antisatellite test. pic.twitter.com/xojZtLGrNi
— Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) November 15, 2021
Within hours of the test, the United States Space Command began tracking some of the larger pieces of debris from the satellite’s destruction. Commercial tracking company LeoLabs also later confirmed that they had detected multiple pieces of debris where they had expected to see the Kosmos 1408 satellite.
Under normal circumstances, Kosmos 1408 would not have approached the International Space Station closely enough to pose a threat, however following the breakup, thousands of individual pieces of debris will have scattered into their own orbits. At least 1,500 pieces of debris from the satellite have already been identified by the United States Space Command. However, many smaller objects will have been generated, which will take much longer to identify. With high relative velocities, even a tiny fragment can cause significant damage should it collide with another spacecraft.
Owing to concerns about the debris cloud, the crew aboard the ISS were instructed to close hatches between the space station’s modules and take shelter aboard the Dragon and Soyuz capsules docked to the station. This is in accordance with the station’s usual procedure when a close approach with orbital debris is predicted and there is not sufficient time for the outpost to maneuver to avoid it. In the event a debris strike leaves the station uninhabitable, the crew would be able to return to Earth aboard the spacecraft in which they have taken shelter.
The orbit of the International Space Station brings it through the potential debris cloud from Kosmos 1804 every 93 minutes, with each pass lasting about six minutes. The crew first took shelter shortly before a pass through this cloud at 07:06. Hatches between the station and its outer modules – such as the Columbus laboratory – have been closed and are being kept shut except when needed for crew access when it is safe for the astronauts to enter and exit.
The current seven-member Expedition 66 crew aboard the International Space Station is commanded by Russian Cosmonaut Anton Shkaplerov, who is joined by Pyotr Dubrov, NASA astronauts Mark Vande Hei, Raja Chari, Thomas Marshburn and Kayla Barron as well as Matthias Maurer of the European Space Agency. The risk of debris poses as much a risk to the Russian crewmembers aboard the station as to their international partners.
The Expedition 66 Crew currently aboard the ISS — via NASA
Three other humans are in orbit aboard the Chinese Space Station. The China National Space Administration has not yet commented on the incident or indicated if there has been any disruption to its operations.
The United States has led the international response to Russia’s anti-satellite test, with State Department spokesman Ned Price condemned it as a “dangerous and irresponsible” act which “threatens the interests of all nations”.
For many years the risk of debris in Earth orbit was downplayed, with satellites and rocket stages being abandoned in orbit at the ends of their missions and the probability of collisions in the vastness of space being written-off as negligible. This was disproven in 2009, when a derelict Russian communications satellite collided with the Iridium 33 spacecraft. Another collision between a fragment from the upper stage of a Zenit rocket and China’s Yunhai 1-02 satellite occurred earlier this year and resulted in the destruction of the Chinese spacecraft.
Each of these collisions – while accidental – produced more pieces of debris as the satellites that were hit broke apart. In 1978, NASA scientist Donald Kessler predicted a scenario where debris-producing collisions become self-propagating, leaving low Earth orbit unusable. While we have not yet reached this point, many nations and organizations have committed to more sustainable use of space. Where possible, satellites and upper stages are now deorbited and where this is not practical steps are often taken to passivate them or hasten their re-entry. Tests of systems to remove debris from orbit have been conducted on small satellite missions.
With the deployment of large satellite constellations in low Earth orbit for high-speed communications projects, such as SpaceX’s Starlink and OneWeb’s communications network, the number of operational spacecraft has increased dramatically over the last few years. While their operators are committed to their safe and responsible disposal, the presence of additional fragments in orbit from the intentional destruction of satellites increases the risk that an operational satellite might be struck by debris.
Lead Image: Test launch of a Nudol missile in 2018 — via Russian Ministry of Defense