Following Flight 7 SpaceX line up future Starships

by Ryan Weber

SpaceX continues to press forward with preparations for Flight 8 of Starship, ranging from vehicle testing and launch site readiness.

While SpaceX may have lost Ship 33 during Flight 7, Booster 14 was still caught. This outcome opens many possibilities for the combinations of vehicles that may fly and the possible objectives of the flight.

Flight 7 Recap

SpaceX launched Starship Flight 7 on Jan 16 in another afternoon launch. The initial ascent with Booster 14 was perfect, with no engine outs and the hot staging maneuver completed. While Ship 33 began its ascent burn, Booster 14 completed its boost back burn minus a single engine and received the “Go for Booster Return” call out.

With it clear to return, Booster 14 then completed its landing burn with all 13 engines, including the engine that did not ignite for the boost back burn. The tower then caught it, making it the second Super Heavy Booster to do so. 

Booster 14 Landing Burn (Credit: Tyler Gray for NSF)

However, Ship 33, the first Block 2 ship to fly, did not go well. During ascent, a fire can be seen coming out of the aft flap motor port, indicating a possible fire above the engine bay shielding used to protect the aft dome during hot staging. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said this was possibly a leak greater than the ship’s vent capacity.

Since Ship 25, SpaceX has had vents installed in this area of the aft section to help passively vent any leaked Liquid Oxygen or Liquid Methane out of the Ship. Due to this issue, Ship 33’s engines slowly started to cut out one after another as systems got damaged, much like with Booster 7 on Flight 1.

Eventually, either the flight termination system was activated, or there was an internal overpressure event, and Ship 33 experienced an anomaly exploding at a high altitude near the Turks and Caicos Islands over the Atlantic Ocean.

According to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), debris then fell outside of the original hazard zones, which led to activating a Debris Response Area to reroute or ground-stop aircraft safely. Because of this and the anomaly, the FAA requires SpaceX to perform a Mishap Investigation into why this anomaly occurred.

This flight is a setback for the Starship Program as there were many systems SpaceX wanted to test on this flight when flying the first Block 2 Ship. However, SpaceX has repeatedly proven that, as a company, the teams can solve these problems quickly and get back to flight. 

Regarding possible fixes for this failure, teams can add more vent capacity or, as Elon Musk said, add a fire suppression system to ship like a Booster. Adding a fire suppression system to the ship could take some time as crews would have to add hardware to the Ship and modify the tower and the Ship Quick Disconnect to fill the Ship with carbon dioxide.

The Ship may have been lost, but on the bright side, SpaceX did catch another Booster, which is currently in Mega Bay 1 getting looked over and possibly refurbished for a second flight. 

Flight 8: Ship 34 and Booster 15

With the loss of Ship 33 on ascent, all eyes are now on Ship 34, which completed its cryogenic proof testing at Masseys just two days after Flight 7. The ship is now back in Mega Bay 2 to receive its aft flaps, engines, and other modifications before going back out for a static fire at Masseys.

Ship 34’s other half, Booster 15, is currently in Mega Bay 1 and just started receiving its grid fins within the last week. It is possible that Booster 15 rolls out for a static fire within the next week or two.

Ship 34 heading to Masseys for Cryo (Credit: BocaChicaGal for NSF)

Since Ship 33 was unable to complete most of its mission objectives, SpaceX will likely do another suborbital flight in order to test a Block 2 Ship. If Ship 33 had completed all of its objectives, then it is possible that Ship 34 could’ve been the first Ship to orbit with a possible catch attempt.

The date for when Flight 8 is a big question mark. Currently, two parts will determine the date, vehicle readiness, and regulatory issues. Using past vehicle readiness, Ship 34 could be ready by the end of February. However, assuming Booster 15 follows Booster 14’s timeline, it may not be ready until April, but this doesn’t factor in SpaceX making processes faster.

The regulatory side is now more complicated than the last three launches because SpaceX needs to perform a mishap investigation and can not fly until either the investigation is finished or SpaceX gets a safety exemption. Considering the FAA said debris fell outside the hazard zones and Flights had to be diverted, SpaceX may have trouble getting an exemption. This means the sign-off for another launch won’t happen until the FAA gives the go-ahead after SpaceX completes the investigation.

Booster 15 Cryo at Masseys (Credit: BocaChicaGal for NSF)

Flight 9 and Beyond

After Ship 34, we have Ship 35, which is only one section shy of being fully stacked. Assuming it gets fully stacked within the next two weeks, Ship 35 may not be ready until April or May. Regarding objectives, Ship 35 could be the first Ship to orbit with a potential catch attempt on Pad B at Starbase, not Pad A.

Ship 35 Nosecone from December (Credit: BocaChicaGal for NSF)

Here is where problems arise regarding vehicle combinations. Booster 16 is currently fully stacked but was only finished a month ago. Based on the quickest Booster readiness timeline, which is Booster 14 at eight months, that would mean Booster 16 may not be ready for flight at the end of August.

As always, these timelines use data from older vehicles, and SpaceX can speed up testing and booster outfitting. Still, assuming Booster 16 won’t be ready for several months, SpaceX might end up reusing Booster 14 to get another flight in. Reflying the just second booster that landed wouldn’t be unprecedented, as SpaceX did the same with the second Falcon 9 that landed.

Ship 36 Nose Cone (Credit: BocaChicaGal for NSF)

After Ship 35 and Booster 16, things get a lot more murky. Currently, Booster 17 is being stacked in Mega Bay 1, which is still a Block 1 Booster. It is unknown if this is the last Block 1 booster to be made. Once SpaceX gets into Block 2 of Booster, Pad B’s readiness also comes into play in terms of hardware and on the regulatory side.

In terms of ships, nose cones for Ship 36, Ship 37, and Ship 38 can be seen in various stages of production. With the possibility of Booster reuse and Ship reuse by the end of the year, vehicle combinations will be more challenging to predict.

Featured Image: Booster 14 on the Orbital Launch Mount after Flight 7 (Credit: BocaChicaGal for NSF).

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